EMPIRICAL STUDY OF CARHART FOUR FACTOR MODEL AND FAMA FRENCH FIVE FACTOR MODEL IN INDONESIA

Authors

  • Lisa Monica B1024181020 Sievandu Universitas Tanjungpura

Abstract

This research aims to test the ability of the Carhart Four Factor Model and the Fama French Five Factor Model in explaining variations in returns on the Indonesian stock market. The research object uses companies that were listed on the LQ45 Index in the period of 2018 to 2022, with sample selection using the purposive sampling method. The analytical method used in this study is panel data regression analysis. The research findings show that the market excess return and book-to-market variables have a positive significant effect on excess return, while the profitability variable has a negative significant effect on excess return. Meanwhile, the firm size, momentum, and investment variables have no significant effect on excess return.

Keywords: Carhart Four Factor Model, Fama French Five Factor Model, Excess Return

 

REFERENCES

Abeysekera, A. P., & Nimal, P. D. (2017). The Four-Factor Model and Stock Returns: Evidence from Sri Lanka. Afro-Asian J. of Finance and Accounting, 7(1), 1"“15. doi: https://doi.org/10.1504/AAJFA.2017.082924

Altinay, A. T., Dogan, M., Ergun, B. L. D., & Alshiqi, S. (2023). The Fama-French Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model: A Research on Borsa Istanbul. Economic Studies Journal, 32(4), 3"“21. Retrieved from https://www.iki.bas.bg/Journals/EconomicStudies/2023/2023-4/01_Mesut-Dogan.pdf

Azizi, H. R., Pakmaram, A., Rezaei, N., & Abdi, R. (2020). Presenting a Model for Portfolio Risk Premium Assessment: Evidence from the Tehran Stock Exchange. International Journal of Nonlinear Analysis and Applications, 11(Special Issue), 21"“30. doi: https://doi.org/10.22075/ijnaa.2020.44439

Banz, R. W. (1981). The Relationship between Return and Market Value of Common Stocks. Journal of Financial Economics, 9(1), 3"“18. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(81)90018-0

Benali, M., Lahboub, K., & El Bouhadi, A. (2023). Pricing Ability of Carhart Four-Factor and Fama-French Three-Factor Models: Empirical Evidence from Morocco. International Journal of Financial Studies, 11(1), 20. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11010020

Bodie, Z., Kane, A., & Marcus, A. J. (2014). Investments (Tenth Edition). New York: McGraw-Hill Education.

Brigham, E. F., & Ehrhardt, M. C. (2017). Financial Management: Theory and Practice (15th ed.). Boston: Cengage Learning.

Bursa Efek Indonesia. (2019). IDX Fact Book 2019. Retrieved from https://www.idx.co.id/media/7717/fb2019-halaman.pdf

Candika, Y. I. (2017). Pengujian Kekuatan Model Carhart Empat Faktor terhadap Excess Return Saham di Indonesia. The International Journal of Applied Business, 1(1), 60"“74. Retrieved from https://journal.unair.ac.id/download-fullpapers-tijab633e6d014efull.pdf

Carhart, M. M. (1997). On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance. The Journal of Finance, 52(1), 57"“82. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03808.x

Chan, L. K. C., Hamao, Y., & Lakonishok, J. (1991). Fundamentals and Stock Returns in Japan. The Journal of Finance, 46(5), 1739"“1764. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/2328571

Darma, Y. D., & Lestari, V. S. A. (2022). Fama-French Five Factors Model pada Excess Return Saham Indeks Kompas 100. Jurnal Riset Akuntansi & Perpajakan (JRAP), 9(1), 88"“100. doi: https://doi.org/10.35838/jrap.2022.009.01.07

Evbayiro-Osagie, E. I., & Osamwonyi, I. O. (2017). A Comparative Analysis of Four-Factor Model and Three-Factor Model in the Nigerian Stock Market. International Journal of Financial Research, 8(4), 38"“52. doi: https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v8n4p38

Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets"¯: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383"“417. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486

Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). The Cross"Section of Expected Stock Returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427"“465. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/2329112

Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3"“56. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(93)90023-5

Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (2015). A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model. Journal of Financial Economics, 116(1), 1"“22. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2014.10.010

Ghozali, I. (2013). Aplikasi Analisis Multivariate dengan Program IBM SPSS 21 Update PLS Regresi. Semarang: Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro.

Gumanti, T. A., Sutrisno, B., Andreas, & Bernardus, D. (2017). Empirical Study of Fama-French Three-Factor Model and Carhart Four-Factor Model in Indonesia. doi: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3314684

Hartono, J. (2022). Portofolio dan Analisis Investasi: Pendekatan Modul (Edisi 2). Yogyakarta: Penerbit ANDI.

Hossain, M. S. (2022). Asset Pricing Puzzle: New Evidence of Fama-French Five-Factors in Emerging Market Perspectives. Real Estate Management and Valuation, 30(3), 73"“85. doi: https://doi.org/10.2478/remav-2022-0022

Hou, K. (2021). The Impact of Fama-French Five Factor Model on Retail Industry During the Outbreak of COVID-19. In 2021 4th International Conference on Global Economy, Finance and Humanities Research (pp. 117"“122). doi: https://doi.org/10.23977/gefhr2021.016

Husnan, S. (2015). Dasar-Dasar Teori Portofolio & Analisis Sekuritas (Edisi Kelima). Yogyakarta: UPPN STIM YKPN.

Ishtiaq, M., Tufail, M. S., Muneer, S., & Sarwar, M. B. (2019). Application of Fama-French Five Factor Model in Stock Pricing: Evidence from Emerging Market. Pacific Business Review International, 11(7), 73"“95. Retrieved from http://www.pbr.co.in/2019/jan.aspx

Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. The Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65"“91. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04702.x

Khan, M. S., & Fahim, M. M. U. (2021). The Four-Factor Model and Stock Returns in Bangladesh. International Journal of Accounting & Finance Review, 6(2), 133"“149. doi: https://doi.org/10.46281/ijafr.v6i2.1122

Li, L., & Wu, S. (2022). Analysis of Meal Industry in U.S. Stock Market During COVID-19 Based on Fama-French Five-Factor Model. In 2022 7th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2022) (pp. 1856"“1860). doi: https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.220307.305

Lintner, J. (1965). The Valuation of Risk Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 47(1), 13"“37. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/1924119

Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77"“91. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/2975974

Munawaroh, U., & Sunarsih. (2020). The Effects of Fama-French Five Factor and Momentum Factor on Islamic Stock Portfolio Excess Return Listed in ISSI. Jurnal Ekonomi & Keuangan Islam, 6(2), 119"“133. doi: https://doi.org/10.20885/JEKI.vol6.iss2.art4

Musawa, N., Kapena, S., & Shikaputo, C. (2018). A Comparative Analysis of Fama-French Five and Three-Factor Model in Explaining Stock Returns Variation. International Journal of Economics, 3(1), 30"“48. Retrieved from https://iprjb.org/journals/index.php/IJECON/article/view/690/832

Nugraha, F., Nurmatias, & Wahyudi. (2022). Analisis Fama French 5 Factors Model dalam Mempengaruhi Excess Return Saham pada Lq45. Ikraith-Ekonomika, 5(1), 89"“102. Retrieved from https://journals.upi-yai.ac.id/index.php/IKRAITH-EKONOMIKA/article/view/1716/1415

Nugraha, N. M., & Susanti, N. (2019). The Use of the Three Factor Asset Pricing Models and Carhart Four Factors to Assess Excess Return. In 5th Bandung Creative Movement International Conference on Creative Industries 2018 (5th BCM 2018) (pp. 361"“369). Retrieved from https://www.atlantis-press.com/proceedings/bcm-18/125910956

Ragab, N. S., Abdou, R. K., & Sakr, A. M. (2019). A Comparative Study Between the Fama and French Three-Factor Model and the Fama and French Five-Factor Model: Evidence from the Egyptian Stock Market. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 12(1), 52"“69. doi: https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v12n1p52

Saleh, M. (2020). Empirical Testing of the Five-Factor Model of Fama and French in Indonesia as an Emerging Capital Market. Journal of Economics and Business, 3(1), 19"“28. doi: https://doi.org/10.31014/aior.1992.03.01.175

Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425"“442. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1964.tb02865.x

Sugiyono. (2013). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R&D. Bandung: Penerbit Alfabeta.

Sunaryo, D. (2023). Manajemen Investasi dan Portofolio (Dilengkapi Model Kasus Kontemporer). Semarang: Yayasan Drestanta Pelita Indonesia.

Surono, Y. (2018). Model Asset Pricing yang Berlaku di Indonesia: Study Kasus Saham Unggulan. J-MAS (Jurnal Manajemen Dan Sains), 3(2), 146"“159. doi: https://doi.org/10.33087/jmas.v3i2.52

Sutedja, M. D. S., & Wijaya, L. I. (2022). Does Including Momentum Factor into Fama-French Five-Factor Model Predict Better Return in Indonesia? Syntax Literate"¯; Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia, 7(2), 852"“860. doi: https://doi.org/10.36418/syntax-literate.v7i2.6326

Tazi, O., Aguenaou, S., & Abrache, J. (2022). A Comparative Study of the Fama-French Three Factor and the Carhart Four Factor Models: Empirical Evidence from Morocco. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 12(1), 58"“66. doi: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.12685

Pemerintah Indonesia. 1995. Undang-Undang Nomor 8 Tahun 1995 tentang Pasar Modal. Lembaran Negara Republik Indonesia Tahun 1995 Nomor 64. Jakarta.

Widarjono, A. (2015). Statistika Terapan dengan Excel & SPSS. Yogyakarta: UPP STIM YKPN.

Widyaningsih, E., & Zen, F. (2021). Pengaruh Fama-French Five Factor Model terhadap Excess Return pada Perusahaan LQ 45 Tahun 2014-2019. Jurnal Ekonomi, Bisnis Dan Pendidikan, 1(5), 425"“438. doi: https://doi.org/10.17977/um066v1i52021p425-438

Wijaya, S. C., Murhadi, W. R., & Utami, M. (2017). Analisis Fama French Five Factor Model dan Three Factor Model dalam Menjelaskan Return Portofolio Saham yang Masuk pada Indeks Kompas 100 Periode 2010-2015. Calyptra: Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Universitas Surabaya, 6(1), 938"“959. Retrieved from https://journal.ubaya.ac.id/index.php/jimus/article/view/3387/2523

Yuliyana, I. D., & Sembiring, F. M. (2021). Analisis Model Lima Faktor Fama dan French pada Saham-Saham Indeks LQ45 di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2016-2019. Portofolio: Jurnal Ekonomi, Bisnis, Manajemen, Dan Akuntansi, 18(2), 101"“119. Retrieved from https://journal.unjani.ac.id/index.php/portofolio/article/view/212/99

Zulfikar. (2016). Pengantar Pasar Modal dengan Pendekatan Statistika. Yogyakarta: Deepublish.

Published

2025-03-05