Prediksi Tinggi Signifikan Gelombang Laut Di Sebagian Wilayah Perairan Indonesia Menggunakan Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan Metode Propagasi Balik

Authors

  • Abraham Isahk Bekalani , Yudha Arman , Muhammad Ishak Jumarang Program Studi Fisika Fakultas Matematika dan pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Tanjungpura.
  • Yudha Arman Program Studi Fisika Fakultas Matematika dan pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Tanjungpura.
  • Muhammad Ishak Jumarang Program Studi Fisika Fakultas Matematika dan pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Tanjungpura.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26418/pf.v1i1.1421

Abstract

Telah dilakukan prediksi tinggi signifikan gelombang laut di perairan Indonesia menggunakan metode jaringan syaraf tiruan (JST) propagasi balik. Titik sampel data yang digunakan adalah data tinggi signifikan gelombang laut pada tahun 2001 hingga 2010 di 10 titik lokasi perairan Indonesia pada posisi 106,560 BT hingga 114,410 BT dan posisi 3,220 LS hingga 6,440 LS. JST yang digunakan adalah propagasi balik algoritma Quasi Newton one step secant dengan arsitektur [40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 1]. Hasil pada saat pelatihan menunjukkan nilai koefisien korelasi antara output dan target adalah 1, sedangkan pada saat pengujian nilai koefisien korelasi antara output dan data observasi (targe) adalah 0,97. Hasil validasi pertama menunjukkan nilai koefisien korelasi sebesar 0,78, hasil proses validasi untuk periode berikutnya menunjukkan nilai koefisien korelasi sebesar 0,62 dan 0,55. Hasil validasi menunjukkan tren penurunan.   Hal ini diduga pada saat tersebut terjadi kondisi ekstrem di wilayah perairan lokasi penelitian. Hal ini berimplikasi pada tingkat kesulitan prediksi yang semakin meningkat terhadap data tinggi signifikan gelombang laut pada lokasi penelitian tersebut.

 

Kata kunci: tinggi signifikan, gelombang laut, JST propagasi balik, prediksi.

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Published

2013-03-18

Issue

Vol. 1 No. 1 (2013)

Section

Articles

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Date: 24-05-2023

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