Prediksi Awal Musim Hujan dan Awal Musim Kemarau di Ketapang Bagian Selatan Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26418/pf.v10i3.58142Abstract
Kabupaten Ketapang khususnya bagian selatan termasuk daerah zona musim (ZOM) yaitu daerah yang memiliki perbedaan yang sangat jelas antara periode musim hujan dan periode musim kemarau. Prediksi awal musim hujan dan kemarau diperlukan dalam berbagai hal. Metode yang digunakan untuk melakukan prediksi dalam penelitian ini adalah metode ARIMA. Data yang digunakan merupakan data curah hujan selama 11 tahun (2011-2020). Penelitian ini hanya dilakukan di wilayah ketapang yang memiliki zona musim yaitu Kabupaten Ketapang bagian selatan. Berdasarkan analisis yang diperoleh model terbaik yaitu ARIMA (0,1,2)(2,1,1,36) awal musim hujan terjadi pada bulan November 2020 yang jika dilihat pada data aktualnya model ARIMA memprediksi awal musim hujan terlambat satu dasarian dan awal musim kemarau terjadi pada bulan Juli 2020, model memprediksi awal musim kemarau satu bulan lebih awal dari aktualnya. Dengan tingkat keakuratan modelnya dalam memprediksi awal musim satu tahun kedepan yaitu sebesar MAPE 57,08%, koefisien korelasi 0,2.
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Date: 24-05-2023
Prisma Fisika
Email: prismafisika@physics.untan.ac.id
