Kajian Dinamika Atmosfer saat Terjadinya Cold Surge, Southerly Surge, dan Borneo Vortex dengan Memanfaatkan Model WRF
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26418/positron.v11i1.45762Keywords:
cold surge, southerly surge, Borneo vortex, dinamika atmosfer, model WRFAbstract
Fenomena cuaca seperti cold surge, southerly surge, dan Borneo vortex dapat menjadi penyebab anomali musim hujan di Indonesia. Penelitian ini mengkaji dinamika atmosfer saat terjadinya cold surge, southerly surge, dan Borneo vortex di benua maritim Indonesia (BMI) bagian barat pada tanggal 9 "“ 15 Desember 2012 dengan memanfaatkan model weather research and forecasting (WRF). Penelitian ini menggunakan final global data. Untuk verifikasi digunakan data angin, kelembapan relatif, curah hujan hasil observasi, serta data curah hujan global satellite mapping of precipitation (GSMaP). Metode yang digunakan adalah metode statistik dan deskriptif. Hasilnya didapatkan bahwa model WRF mampu merespon kehadiran cold surge, southerly surge dan Borneo vortex dengan baik. Hal ini dibuktikan dengan nilai mean absolute error (MAE) pada kelembapan relatif, kecepatan angin, dan curah hujan yang secara umum masih di bawah nilai toleransi kesalahan. Nilai korelasi yang sangat kuat juga didapatkan pada unsur curah hujan. Namun, model WRF belum mampu mengikuti pola spasial curah hujan GSMaP. Hasil kajian menggunakan keluaran model WRF didapatkan bahwa kehadiran southerly surge mengurangi intensitas cold surge dan Borneo vortex serta menyebabkan penurunan curah hujan di BMI bagian barat. Sementara itu, meningkatnya intensitas cold surge dan Borneo vortex menyebabkan peningkatan curah hujan di BMI bagian barat.References
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