Dinamika Integrasi Pasar Volatilitas Harga dan Efektivitas Kebijakan Pemerintah dalam Stabilisasi Harga Beras di Sumatera Utara

Nelva Meyriani Ginting; Anggiat Sinaga; Sary Gea

doi:10.26418/jsea.v14i2.100747

Authors

Nelva Meyriani Ginting Program Studi Agribisnis, Universitas Mahkota Tricom Unggul, Medan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8612-8659
Anggiat Sinaga Program Studi Agribisnis, Universitas Mahkota Tricom Unggul, Medan
Sary Gea Program Studi Agribisnis, Universitas Mahkota Tricom Unggul, Medan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26418/jsea.v14i2.100747

Keywords:

market, policy, price transmission, rice, volatility

Abstract

Rice is a strategic commodity in North Sumatra, but its price volatility has the potential to hamper economic growth, disrupt poverty alleviation programmes, and reduce food stability. High rice prices indicate that government policies are not yet optimal, so price stabilisation is needed to ensure the availability and affordability of rice and support better distribution from producers to consumers. The purpose of this study is to analyse market integration, rice price volatility, rice price transmission, and government food policies for rice price stability in North Sumatra Province. The analysis methods used in this study are the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyse rice market integration, the ARCH/GARCH method to analyse rice price volatility, and the AECM (Asymmetric Error Correction Model) to analyse rice price transmission, and the Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) method to analyse government food policies for rice price stability in North Sumatra Province. The results of the study show that the rice market in North Sumatra is integrated in the long term, but remains weak in the short term with asymmetric price transmission. High price volatility occurs at the producer level, while it is relatively low at the consumer level due to government intervention. Government policies improve farmers' welfare but have a negative impact on price stability. Therefore, rice price stabilisation needs to focus on increasing productivity and improving food distribution to be sustainable and fair for consumers and farmers. Keywords: market, policy, price transmission, rice, volatility

Author Biography

Nelva Meyriani Ginting, Program Studi Agribisnis, Universitas Mahkota Tricom Unggul, Medan

Agribisnis

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