The Roles of Export of Coffee Commodity and Macroeconomics Factors on Unemployment in Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26418/j.sea.v12i2.66113Keywords:
Export, Coffee commodity, Macroeconomics factors, UnemploymentAbstract
Coffee as the second largest agricultural commodity export has contributed to the economies of various countries, including Indonesia. In addition to looking at the role of coffee commodity exports, an analysis of macroeconomic factors' impact on Indonesia's unemployment rate is also analyzed. Because it is known that the unemployment rate is not only caused by one sector but some things influence it, including macroeconomic factors. This study analyzes the role of coffee commodity exports and macroeconomic factors, including GDP, inflation, and interest rates, on Indonesia's unemployment rate. The data used in this study is interpolated secondary data for the period 2000 to 2021. The estimation method used in this study is Robust Least Square (ROBUSTLS) which will then be estimated again using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method as a robustness test. The estimation results using the ROBUSTLS method prove that coffee commodity exports and macroeconomic factors significantly affect Indonesia's unemployment rate in aggregate. This form of influence is negative for coffee commodity exports (ExpCof), gross domestic product (GDP), and interest rate (IR). While inflation (Inf) has a positive impact on the unemployment rate (Ump). These findings are reinforced by the estimation results using the ARDL method with the result that ExpCof, GDP, and Inf have a significant relationship to Ump, while Inf is not as significant as the findings from the estimation results using the ROBUSTLS method.
References
Baroh, I., Hanani, N., Setiawan, B., & Koestiono, D. (2014). Indonesian Coffee Competitiveness in the International Market: Armington Model Application. American Journal of Economics, 2014(4), 184–194. https://doi.org/10.5923/j.economics.20140404.03
BPS. (2022). Ekspor Kopi Menurut Negara Tujuan Utama, 2000-2021. Publikasi Statistik Indonesia. https://www.bps.go.id/statictable/2014/09/08/1014/ekspor-kopi-menurut-negara-tujuan-utama-2000-2021.html
Drajat, B., Agustian, A., & Supriatna, A. (2007). Export and Competitiveness of Indonesian Coffee Bean in International Market: Strategic Implication for the Development of Organic Coffee Bean. Pelita Perkebunan (a Coffee and Cocoa Research Journal), 23(2), 159–179. https://doi.org/10.22302/iccri.jur.pelitaperkebunan.v23i2.88
Fitriani, Arifin, B., & Ismono, H. (2021). Indonesian coffee exports and its relation to global market integration. Journal of Socioeconomics and Development, 4(1), 120–133. DOI:10.31328/jsed.v4i1.2115
Folawewo, A. O., & Adeboje, O. M. (2017). Macroeconomic Determinants of Unemployment : Empirical Evidence from Economic Community of West African States. African Development Review, 29(2), 197–210. DOI:10.1111/1467-8268.12250
Gavin, R. J. (1975). Aden under British rule, 1839-1967. Barnes & Noble Books.
Huber, P. J. (1973). Robust Regression: Asymptotics, Conjectures and Monte Carlo. The Annals of Statistics, 1(5), 799–821. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2958283
Ibrahim, M. Y., & Indra. (2021). An Empirical Analysis of Islamic Banking ( IBs ) Contribution to Indonesia ’ s Inclusive Growth 1. International Journal of Islamic Economics and Finance (IJIEF), 4, 87–120. DOI:10.18196/ijief.v4i0.10342
Jin, C., Lee, S., & Hwang, J. (2019). The impact of import and export on unemployment: A cross-national analysis. International Journal of Sustainable Economy, 11(4), 347–363. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSE.2019.103475
Meyers, H. (2005). Suave Molecules of Mocha - Coffee, Chemistry, and Civilization. New Partisan A Journal of Politics, Culture and The Arts. http://newpartisan.squarespace.com/home/suave-molecules-of-mocha-coffee-chemistry-and-civilization.html
Murindahabi, T., Ekanayake, B., & Nisingizwe, E. (2019). Do coffee exports have impact on long-term economic growth of countries ? Agricultural Economics – Czech, 8, 385–393. https://doi.org/10.17221/283/2018-AGRICECON
Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1995). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. Symposium at the Centennial of Ragnar Frisch, 01–24.
Prajanti, S. D. W., Pramono, S. E., & Adzim, F. (2020). FACTORS INFLUENCING INDONESIA COFFEE EXPORTS. Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research, 390, 41–45, DOI:10.2991/icracos-19.2020.8
Rousseeuw, P., & Yohai, V. J. (1984). Robust Regression by Means of S-Estimators. Lecture Notes in Statistics, 26, 256–272. DOI:10.1007/978-1-4615-7821-5_15
Sahoo, M., & Sahoo, J. (2019). The relationship between unemployment and some macroeconomic variables : Empirical evidence from India. Theoretical and Applied Economics, XXVI(1), 115–128. RePEc:agr:journl:v:xxvi:y:2019:i:1(618):p:115-128
Schmidheiny, K. (2022). The Multiple Linear Regression Model. In Short Guides to Microeconometrics.
Souza, R. M. (2008). Plant-Parasitic Nematodes of Coffee. Springer.
Suryono, D. W., Burda, A., & Chandra, R. (2020). Does Indonesia ’ s Economic Growth Reduce Unemployment ? Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, 132, 169–171. DOI:10.2991/aebmr.k.200331.037
Tuchscherer, M. (2009). Coffee in The Red Sea Area from the Sixteenth to the Nineteenth Century. In The Global Coffee Economy in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, 1500–1989 (pp. 50–66). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511512193x
Varquez, F., Tabak, B. M., & Souto, M. (2012). A macro stress test model of credit risk for the Brazilian Banking Sector. Journal of Financial Stability, 8(2), 69–83. DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2011.05.002
Vladi, E., & Hysa, E. (2019). The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Unemployment Rate : Western Balkan Countries. In International Firms’ Economic Nationalism and Trade Policies in the Globalization Era (Issue January). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-7561-0.ch009
Wild, A. (2004). Coffee: A Dark History. Fourth Estate.
Yohai, V. J. (1987). High Breakdown-Point and High Efficiency Robust Estimates for Regression. The Annals of Statistics, 15(2). https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176350366
Yolanda. (2017). Impacts of export development on unemployment in Indonesia. European Research Studies Journal, 20(3), 768–783. https://doi.org/10.35808/ersj/743
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Nur Hendrasto, Muhammad Yusuf Ibrahim, & Tanti Novianti
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
