Pengaruh Perubahan Suhu Permukaan Laut (SPL) di Selat Makassar terhadap Curah Hujan di Kota Samarinda dan Makassar pada Fase ENSO
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26418/lkuntan.v9i1.103504Keywords:
Rainfall, ENSO, Correlation, SSTAbstract
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is a key oceanographic parameter that influences atmospheric processes, particularly weather and climate variability, including rainfall, and its variability is closely linked to large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO. This study examines the relationship between SST variability in the Makassar Strait and rainfall in Samarinda City and Makassar City under three climate conditions representing ENSO phases: El Niño (2015), normal conditions (2017), and La Niña (2022). Daily SST and rainfall data were converted into monthly mean values and analyzed using Pearson correlation to assess the strength and direction of their relationship. The results show that SST–rainfall correlations in Samarinda City were −0.423 during El Niño conditions, −0.219 during normal conditions, and −0.39 during La Niña conditions, indicating a moderate influence during El Niño and weaker relationships in other phases. In Makassar City, correlation values were −0.331 in 2015, −0.10 in 2017, and +0.69 in 2022, suggesting weak relationships during El Niño and normal conditions but a strong positive relationship during La Niña conditions. Overall, these findings demonstrate that the influence of SST variability in the Makassar Strait on rainfall differs by region and ENSO phase, providing useful insight for developing region-specific rainfall prediction models based on oceanic and climatic variability.References
Aldrian, E. dan dan R.D. Susanto. 2003. Identification of Three Dominant Rainfall Regions Within Indonesia And Their Relationship To Sea Surface Temperature. International Journal of Climatology, 23(12): 1435-1452.
Atmadipoera, A., R. Molcard, G. Madec, S. Wijffels, J. Sprintall, A. Koch-Larrouy, I. Jaya, A. Supangat. 2009. Characteristics And Variability of the Indonesian Throughflow Water at the Outflow Straits. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers, 56(11): 1942–1954.
Chang, C.-P., Z. Wang, J., Mcbride, C.-H. Liu. 2005. Annual Cycle of Southeast Asia-Maritime Continent Rainfall and the Asymmetric Monsoon Transition. Journal of Climate, 18(2):287-301.
Gordon, A. 2005. Oceanography of the Indonesian Seas and Their Throughflow. Oceanography, 18(4): 14-27.
Iskandar, I., D.O. Lestrai, M. Nur. 2019. Impact of El Niño and El Niño Modoki Events on Indonesian Rainfall. Makara Journal of Science, 23(4): 217–222.
Juneng, L. dan F. T. Tangang. 2005. Evolution of ENSO-Related Rainfall Anomalies in Southeast Asia Region and Its Relationship with Atmosphere–Ocean Variations in Indo-Pacific sector. Climate Dynamics, 25(4): 337–350.
Kartika, Q.A., A. Faqih, I.P. Santikayasa, A.M. Setiawan. 2023. Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Characteristics Affecting Rainfall in Western Java, Indonesia. Agromet, 37(1): 54–65.
Nisbet, E.G. dan Philander S. G. 1990. El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation. Geological Magazine, 127(5): 478–478.
Oueslati, B. dan Bellon, G. 2015. The Double ITCZ Bias in CMIP5 Models: Interaction Between SST, Large-Scale Circulation And Precipitation. Climate Dynamics, 44: 585–607.
Sprintall, J., A.L. Gordon, A. Koch-Larrouy, T. Lee, J.T. Potemra, K. Pujiana, S.E. Wijffels. 2014. The Indonesian Seas And Their Role In The Coupled Ocean-Climate System. Nature Geoscience, 7(7): 487–492.
Supari, F.T. Tangang, E. Salimun, E. Aldrian, A. Sopaheluwakan, L. Juneng. 2018. ENSO Modulation Of Seasonal Rainfall And Extremes in Indonesia. Climate Dynamics, 51: 2559–2580.
